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27th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (March 17, 2021).  Material 1

 

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

  • The number of new cases of infection in Japan has continued to decrease since the middle of January based on the reporting date (since the beginning of January based on the date of onset). It has remained flat and then slightly increased to approximately 6 per 100,000 people over the last week. It is necessary to prevent recurrences and turn the trend downward.

     

[Local trends]

* The value of new cases of infection is the number of people per 100,000 in the total number for the latest week on the basis of reporting dates

  1. (1) Metropolitan area (Tokyo and its 3 neighboring prefectures):
    The number of new cases of infection is approximately 15, 8, 11, and 12 in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, respectively, which are lower than the index of stage III, 15; they are higher than in the other regions, and an increasing trend has been observed in Tokyo and Saitama. While for medical care provision systems, with decreases in the numbers of new cases of infection and patients receiving treatment, adjustments for hospitalization, etc. by local governments have improved and the burden has been reduced, for example, the figures of the use rate of beds have continuously been below the index of Stage IV.
  2. (2) Kansai area/Chukyo area/Kyushu (6 prefectures):
    Two weeks have passed since the Declaration of State of Emergency was lifted. In all of these regions, the burden on medical care provision systems has been reduced with decreases in the numbers of new cases of infection and patients receiving treatment observed so far. The number of new cases of infection is below 5 in all the prefectures but Osaka and Hyogo. In Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto, and Fukuoka, the figure has leveled off or slightly increased since the beginning of March. The number of people coming and going during nighttime has increased around the time of lifting the Declaration of State of Emergency, and the number of infections in young people has reached a high level in Aichi, Osaka, and Kyoto. In addition, reports on mutant strains are increasing in Kansai.
  3. (3) Areas other than those listed above:
    Attention should be paid to the trend of re-increase in infections, for example, clusters occurred in some regions. Especially in Miyagi and Okinawa, the number of new cases of infection has continued to increase, i.e., approximately 14 and 13, respectively.
[Mutant strain]
  • For the mutant strains with the N501Y mutation (VOC) detected in the UK and South Africa, etc. whose effects are concerned, the risk of more rapid spread is high. An increasing tendency of infections with mutant strains and cluster reports has been observed in active epidemiological investigations of the mutant strains by local governments.

Analysis of infection status

  • In Tokyo and its 3 neighboring prefectures employing the measures for the state of emergency, the number of new cases of infection has decreased through long-term cooperation of citizens and business operators; the figure has leveled off or slightly increased at a higher level than in the other regions since the beginning of March. Cases of infection occur frequently and are highly anonymous in the Tokyo metropolitan area; the sources of infection and the places of cluster are diversified, and there are many cases with an unknown source of infection. By age group, the proportion of young people has increased and there is a trend of re-increase in the flow of people. It has been suggested that recurrences may have been occurring in urban areas, including the Kinki area.
  • The infection has spread mainly in people in their 20s and 30s in Miyagi and Okinawa, and it is necessary to pay attention to the future progress.
  • Clusters have continued to occur in medical institutions, facilities for the elderly, and also at restaurants in some regions. Clusters related to karaoke also occurred.
  • Efforts should be made to prevent re-spread of infection as infections with mutant strains are continuing to occur. It is necessary to pay attention to the possibility that the epidemic virus may be replaced by a mutant strain in the future, leading to further spread of the epidemic.

Measures to be taken

  • It is important to create a method of rapidly detecting signs of recurrence of infection as soon as possible and take measures through the system in order to inhibit the increase in the number of new cases of infection, maintain medical care provision systems, secure a system of stable vaccination, and secure a system to reduce the risk of spread of mutant strains, etc.
  • In this context, attention should be paid to the concern of recurrences induced by lifting the Declaration of a State of Emergency. Especially in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the number of infections is high, and the continued infection has a great influence on the other areas. In order to prevent re-spread of infection, it is necessary to maintain new infections at the lowest possible level for a long period of time. In order to achieve this, efforts required to further reduce infections such as measures in light of the information and assessments based on active epidemiological investigations (it is important to focus also on the presence/absence of risk behaviors even if the source of infection is unknown) according to the infection status in regions. Similar efforts are required also in regions where the state of emergency measures have been lifted.
  • It is necessary for the national and local governments to send out consistent messages about the need for cooperation in the efforts to reduce infections.
  • To reduce the risk of infection when eating and drinking out, it is important to publicize how the users of restaurants should behave in these situations, as well as the efforts of business operators.
  • It is also necessary to send out effective messages again so that people will refrain from parties and trips related to annual events from the end to the beginning of the fiscal year (graduation ceremonies, welcome and farewell parties, and cherry-blossom viewing). And at the beginning of the fiscal year, movements of people and trainings become more frequent as people newly join a company or enter a school and therefore, attention should be paid so that such occasions will not lead to the spread of infection. In addition, clusters related to karaoke have occurred. It is necessary to work again to ensure thorough compliance with the guidelines.
  • It is important to take measures in case of another wave of infection as well as to prevent re-spread. Specifically, efforts are required as follows,
    (1) steady promotion of vaccination; (2) reinforcement of the measures against mutant strains; (3) promotion of the measures against the spread of infection, such as early detection by actively conducting the test according to the risk of infection and re-strengthening active epidemiological investigations, continuation of the measures for restaurants and facilities for the elderly, and flexible responses to signs of the spread of infection; and (4) ensuring enhancement of medical care provision systems to flexibly provide medical care for the novel coronavirus infection (securing a system for smooth operation of a series of actions by effectively securing/utilizing beds through clearly specifying the roles in medical institutions and securing medical institutions for logistical support and facilities to receive discharged patients, as well as continuing to secure a required amount of beds).
[Mutant strain]
  • For mutant strains with mutation in N501Y, considering that their effects will be considerably larger, measures to minimize the effects are required. To realize this, the following measures are required also based on the package of the measures against mutant strains presented the other day:
    (1) continuation of strengthening the border control measures, (2) prompt reinforcement of the surveillance system of mutant strains in Japan (with cooperation with private testing organizations and universities. The national government will regularly confirm the number of tests conducted by local governments), (3) early detection of persons infected with mutant strains, identification of close contacts and the source of infection through active epidemiological investigations and prompt implementation of preventive measures against infection, (4) assessment and analysis of the epidemiological information on the infectivity and pathogenicity of mutant strains (continuing to understand the present situation of mutant strains with mutations such as E484K other than N501Y variants) and proper dissemination of information, and (5) promotion of research developments including centralized collection/analyses of samples and clinical information, etc.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)

Copyright 1998 National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan