51th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (September 8, 2021).  Material 1

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

• The number of new cases of infection nationwide has been decreasing in almost all regions, but it remains high at approximately 81 per 100,000 population for the latest week of reporting dates. The unprecedented spread of infection is still continuing in almost all areas nationwide. As for the number of infected patients per 100,000 population by age, the rate of decrease is high among people in their 10s to 40s, especially those in their 20s. In contrast, attention should be paid to a small decrease in the rate of elderly infected patients.
• With the decrease in the number of new cases of infection, the number of patients receiving treatment has decreased. However, the number of severe patients has remained high and continues to be at a record high. In addition, the number of deaths is continuing to increase. In many regions, the public health/medical care provision systems continue to be under extremely severe pressure.

  Effective reproduction number: On a national basis, the most recent number remains below 1 at 0.87 (as of August 22). The figure is 0.83 in the Tokyo metropolitan area and 0.97 in the Kansai area.

Analysis of infection status [local trends]

* The value of new cases of infection is the total number for the latest week of reporting dates per 100,000 population.

1. Tokyo metropolitan area　(Tokyo and the 3 neighboring prefectures)

   In Tokyo, the number of new cases of infection continues to decrease, but it remains high at approximately 112, exceeding 100. The number of inpatients remains high mainly among those in their 20s to 50s and the proportion of those in their70s and older has increased. Severe patients using mechanical ventilators or artificial heart and lung apparatus are mainly those in their 50s to 60s, but the number of those patients in their 70s or older has been increasing. The numbers of inpatients and severe patients are at the highest level, but have started to decrease. The number of those for whom hospitalization is being arranged has also decreased. On the other hand, general medical services have been restricted, including acceptance for emergency medical care.

   Also in Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa, the number of new cases of infection has started to decrease, but it remains high at approximately 85, 112, and 110, respectively. The cases are mainly among those in their 10s to 50s. The use rate of beds and the use rate of beds for severe patients remain high, and the situation continues to be severe. The nighttime population has recently turned upward in Kanagawa, but has started to decrease in Tokyo, Saitama, and Chiba.

2. Okinawa

   The number of new cases of infection remains at a record high of approximately 212 in Japan, but the ratio of this week to last week has continued to decease to 0.74. New cases are mainly among those in their 20s to 30s and the proportion of minors is also increasing. The use rate of beds for severe patients remains at around 90% and the situation continues to be severe. The nighttime population has been turning downward.

3. Kansai area

   In Osaka, the number of new cases of infection continues to decrease but remains high at approximately 165, exceeding 100. New cases are mainly those in their 20s to 30s. The numbers of inpatients and severe patients continue to increase. The nighttime population continues to increase after the Obon holidays and attention should be paid to the re-expansion of infection. In Shiga, Kyoto, and Hyogo, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 63, 104, and 96, respectively. In Kyoto and Hyogo, the number of inpatients has rapidly increased. In Kyoto, there is not a decrease in the nighttime population, which requires close attention.

   As for other areas, the number of new cases of infection in Nara has started to decrease to approximately 83. In Wakayama, the number has been decreasing to approximately 39.

4. Chukyo/Tokai

   In Aichi, the number of new cases of infection has turned downward, but remains high at approximately 144, exceeding 100. On the other hand, the number in Gifu, Shizuoka, and Mie has continued to decrease to approximately 71, 60, and 71, respectively. In Aichi and Mie, the use rate of beds for severe patients is exceeding 50%. The nighttime population remains at a low level in Aichi, Gifu, and Shizuoka. In Mie, the figure has started to decrease.

5. Hokkaido

   The number of new cases of infection has decreased to approximately 31 (approximately 46 in Sapporo City), and the ratio of this week to last week is 0.57. The number of inpatients is on a declining trend and the use rate of beds for severe patients remains below 20%. The nighttime population is continuing to decrease.

6. Kyushu

   In Fukuoka, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 91. The number of inpatients remains high and the situation is severe. The use rate of beds for severe patients is below 20%. The nighttime population has turned downward. In other prefectures in Kyushu, the number of new cases of infection continues to decrease, and the use rate of beds for severe patients in Saga and Nagasaki is below 20%.

7. Other areas subject to emergency measures

   In Miyagi, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 30. In Ibaraki, Tochigi, and Gunma, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 53, 41 and 42, respectively.

   In Okayama and Hiroshima, the number of new cases of infection has started to decrease and is approximately 51 and 50, respectively. In Okayama, the use rate of beds is below 50%.

8. Other areas subject to priority measures

   In Fukushima, Toyama, Ishikawa, Yamanashi, Kagawa, Ehime, and Kochi, the number of new cases of infection has decreased to approximately 19, 23, 20, 34, 28, 13, and 51, respectively. Particularly in Ishikawa, Yamanashi, Ehime, and Kochi, the use rate of beds for severe patients is below 20%.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

• The number of infected patients continues to decrease in almost all regions nationwide. As places where the infection spreads, the proportion of restaurants and schools has decreased but that of homes and offices has increased. The reasons for the decrease in the number of infected patients include cooperation of many citizens with infection control measures, seasonal factors such as a decrease in the effect of consecutive holidays during summer vacation and the Obon holidays, further progress of vaccination of people including the working generation, reduction in personnel flow in areas under the declaration of the state of emergency and priority measures, and behavior change as an effect of the provision of information.
• While the vaccination rate is expected to further increase in the future, several factors such as long-weekends in September, the start of schools including universities, activation of social activities, and an increase in the de facto population also play a role. Therefore, attention should be paid to the infection situation. For this reason, it is necessary for the government and local governments to continue the necessary efforts in addition to infection control measures at places including the home, workplace, and school in order to steadily control infection.
• Thanks in part to the effect of vaccines, the number of deaths is at a low level compared to the previous infection expansion phase, but it continues to increase. The number of elderly patients with infection and clusters in facilities for elderly people are also increasing, and there is concern that the number of deaths will further increase in the future.

• The number of infected patients remains at a high level, and it is necessary to take actions based on the recognition that the situation is at a disaster level.

  In most regions, the medical/public health systems are continuously under tough conditions. It is necessary to continue measures required to improve the infection status at least to a level where general medical care is not restricted, and to strengthen the medical system, prioritize the operations of public health centers and strengthen support.

• When considering the relaxation of measures according to the local situation, it is required to move stepwise to avoid early rebound. In the mid- to long-term, a relatively serious situation of infections may continue toward the winter, and it is therefore necessary to comprehensively take various approaches such as the promotion of vaccination, proactive implementation of tests, and the utilization of neutralizing antibody drugs.

1. ★ Actions required to protect you and your family’s lives

   Citizens including those who have already been vaccinated should refrain from going out and spend as much time at home as possible to protect themselves and their families. In cases it is really necessary to go out, it is essential to avoid going far from home and to keep away from crowded places and events with an infection risk. Vaccination should be continuously promoted and citizens should undergo tests/examinations in case of a poor health condition.

2. ★ Thorough basic measures against infection

   In addition to basic practices of infection control, the following measures should be promoted: reconfirmation of thorough compliance with the guidelines for each industry, tightening of infection control in offices, offering an environment where employees can easily receive vaccines (such as a vaccine leave), conducting meetings online, promoting working from home (especially for persons with underlying diseases and pregnant women), and making sure that persons with symptoms take leave when they do not go to the office.

3. ★ Maximize effective use of medical resources

   It is necessary to use new neutralizing antibody drugs and to promptly organize a system of quick responses to exacerbation, as well as to make full use of medical resources in each area to secure the required medical care. In addition, based on the premise that the more difficult situation of infection will continue toward winter, it is necessary to take immediate measures, including the establishment of temporary medical facilities.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)