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52th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (September 16, 2021).  Material 1

 

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

  • The number of new cases of infection nationwide has decreased over the past 3 weeks by approximately 63% with approximately 42 per 100,000 population for the latest week of reporting dates. The newly infected patients consist mainly of those in their 50s or younger.
  • With the decrease in the number of new cases of infection, the number of patients under medical care is showing a downward trend. The number of severe patients has started to decrease, but remains at a record high. On the other hand, the number of deaths has shown an upward trend. Although an improving trend is noted, in many regions, the public health system and the medical care provision system have been under extremely severe pressure.

    Effective reproduction number: On a national basis, the most recent number remains below 1 at 0.71 (as of August 30). The figure is 0.68 in the Tokyo metropolitan area and 0.79 in the Kansai area.

Analysis of infection status [local trends]

* The value of new cases of infection is the total number for the latest week of reporting dates per 100,000 population.

  1. Tokyo metropolitan area (Tokyo and the 3 neighboring prefectures)

    In Tokyo, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing, but it remains high at pproximately 57. The number of inpatients in their 20s or older has started to decrease; however, the number of those in their 10s remains unchanged. Severe patients using a mechanical ventilator or an artificial heart and lung apparatus consist mainly of those in their 50s to 60s; however, the number of these patients is showing a decreasing tendency. The number of inpatients has also started to decrease, and the number of patients under home medical care and under coordination with medical care, etc. have been decreasing. On the other hand, general medical services have been restricted, including the acceptance of emergency medical care. In Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa, the number of new cases of infection has started to decrease, but it remains high at approximately 52, 46, and 51, respectively. The use rate of beds and the use rate of beds for severe patients have both started to decrease. In Tokyo, Saitama, and Chiba, the nighttime population has slightly increased.

  2. Okinawa

    The number of new cases of infection remains the highest in Japan at approximately 128; however, it has been decreasing, and the ratio of this week to last week is 0.63. On the other hand, the proportion of minors who have been newly infected has increased. The number of severe patients has also started to decrease, and the use rate of beds for severe patients has also decreased to approximately 60%. However, the hospitalization rate is low at approximately 10%, and the number of patients under home medical care and under coordinated medical care, etc. remains high at approximately 252 per 100,000 population.

  3. Kansai area

    In Osaka, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing, but it remains high at approximately 88. The number of inpatients has been increasing. In Shiga, Kyoto, and Hyogo, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 24, 48, and 57, respectively. The number of inpatients has started to decrease in any of these prefectures. In Nara and Wakayama, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 38 and 14, respectively.

  4. Chukyo/Tokai

    In Aichi, the number of new cases of infection has started to decrease; however, it remains high at approximately 77. In Gifu, Shizuoka, and Mie, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 33, 26, and 30, respectively. In all of these prefectures, the use rate of beds for severe patients remains below 50%. In Mie, the nighttime population has slightly increased.

  5. Hokkaido

    The number of new cases of infection is approximately 15 (approximately 23 in Sapporo). It has been decreasing, and the ratio of this week to last week is 0.55. The number of inpatients has been decreasing, and the use rate of beds for severe patients remains below 20%. The nighttime population has started to increase. Accordingly, the number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored.

  6. Kyushu

    In Fukuoka, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 42. The number of inpatients has started to decrease. The use rate of beds for severe patients remains below 20%. In the other prefectures in Kyushu, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing.

  7. Other regions
    • Regions subject to emergency situation measures: In Ibaragi, Tochigi, Gunma, and Hiroshima, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 33, 28, 19, and 26, respectively. In Gunma, the use rate of beds has started to decrease and remains below 50%. In Tochigi, the nighttime population has recently started to increase. Accordingly, the number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored.

    • Regions subject to priority measures: In Miyagi, Fukushima, Ishikawa, Okayama, and Kagawa, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 17, 12, 16, 20, and 8, respectively.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

  • In this expansion phase of the epidemic, the existing strains are being replaced by the delta variant, which has higher transmissibility. Under these circumstances, people in their 20s to 50s, of whom only half have been vaccinated, may have been active over the 4-day holidays in July and the summer vacations with increased opportunities to have face-to-face contact with people whom they do not usually meet. Indoor activities may also have increased during this period due to the hot outdoor temperatures.
  • On the other hand, the following may be considered as reasons for the subsequent decreasing phase: the effects of long weekends and summer holidays decreased; a long spell of rain, etc. may have decreased the opportunities to go out; the media may have exerted an effect on people, i.e. people’s behavior has changed owing to the information about the surging number of infected patients and the tight medical situations reported through the media; and vaccination has been progressing in people including those of working age. The occurrence of clusters at hospitals and facilities for the elderly, which is usually seen in the latter half of an epidemic, has been suppressed by the vaccination, and a prolonged epidemic has not been observed among elderly people.
  • Based on the above, for the future, although the progressing vaccination is expected to produce positive effects, there is concernsince the Silver Week holidays and the resumption of school at universities, etc. will again provide increased opportunities for people to have face-to-face contact with others whom they do not usually meet, and the downward trend of infections may slow down at a stage when it has still not reached a sufficiently low level, and infections may increase again. The necessary measures should therefore continuously be taken to reduce the number of infections as much as possible and prevent rebound. In the future, the infection may also circulate and persist in places with a high risk of infection. It is accordingly necessary to identify such places and take even stronger countermeasures.
  • When considering to relax measures according to the local situation, it is necessary to move stepwise to avoid early rebound. It is also necessary to make efforts toward normalization in the regions that were the focus of the targets of active epidemiological surveys in association with the rapid expansion of the infection.
  1. Actions required to protect you and your family’s lives

    People including those who have already been vaccinated need to refrain from going out and stay with their family members or usual companions as much as possible to protect themselves and their families. Even if one has to go out, it is essential to avoid going far from home and gathering in large groups. In addition, one should keep away from places with a high infection risk by refraining from going to crowded places or a place at a time when it is crowded with people. Vaccination should be continuously promoted and citizens should undergo tests/examinations in case of a poor health condition.

  2. Thorough basic measures against infection

    In addition to basic practices for infection control, the following measures should thoroughly be implemented: reconfirmation of thorough compliance of guidelines for each industry; tightening of infection control in offices; providing an environment where employees find it easy to receive vaccination; conducting meetings online; promotion of working from home; and making sure that persons with symptoms take a rest without coming to the office. The local government should improve the environment to make it easier for people to receive vaccination and promote the provision of information to those who have not yet received vaccination.

  3. Maximize the effective use of medical resources

    It is required that the use of local medical resources be maximized to ensure the necessary medical care for COVID-19 while minimizing the impact on the general medical care. Based on the premise that the infection status will become more severe as winter approaches, it is necessary to urgently take the following measures: sorting out the ideal medical care system for the entire region; organizing temporary medical facilities/facilities for patients waiting to be hospitalized; strengthening the systems for home and accommodation medical care; and establishing systems to secure medical human resources.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)

 

Copyright 1998 National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan