国立感染症研究所

53th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (September 27, 2021).  Material 1

 

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

  • The number of new cases of infection nationwide was approximately 14 per 100,000 population for the latest week of reporting dates. The number of new cases of infection per 100,000 population by age group is predominant in people in their 50s and younger.
  • With decreasing number of new cases of infection, the numbers of patients receiving treatment and severe patients have been decreasing. The number of deaths(*) has turned to a gradually decreasing trend. The public health and medical care provision systems are showing an improving trend.

    Effective reproduction number: The most recent number remains below 1 at 0.64 nationwide (as of Sep. 9) and is 0.65 both in the Tokyo metro and Kansai areas.

    (*) Aggregation of numbers reported by individual local governments. Based on the date of publication.

Analysis of infection status [local trends]

* The value of new cases of infection is the total number for the latest week of reporting dates per 100,000 population.

  1. Tokyo metro area (Tokyo and 3 neighboring prefectures)

    In Tokyo, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 18. The numbers of inpatients and severe patients have also been decreasing. The use rate of beds remains below 30%, and the use rate of beds for severe patients, below 50%. Patients in their 60s and older account for 11% of new cases of infection, 32% of inpatients, and 38% of severe patients. Note that the percentage of patients in their 60s and older among inpatients and severe patients has been on an increasing trend since August. The number of patients in home care and arranging accommodation for care has also been decreasing to approximately 18. In Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 16, 15, and 16, respectively. The use rate of beds and of beds for severe patients have been decreasing; the use rate of beds is approximately 30% for all prefectures.

  2. Okinawa

    The number of new cases of infection is approximately 47, the highest in Japan; however, it has been decreasing, and the ratio of this week to last week is 0.50. On the other hand, the proportion of minors who have been newly infected has increased. The use rate of beds and the use rate of beds for severe patients have been decreasing, and both are in the order of 30%. The number of patients in home care and arranging accommodation for care has also been decreasing to approximately 58.

  3. Kansai area

    In Osaka, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 31. The number of inpatients has also been decreasing, and the use rate of beds is in the order of 30%. The number of severe patients has also been decreasing to slightly lower than the peak in May. The number of patients in home care and arranging accommodation for care has also been decreasing to approximately 38. In Shiga, Kyoto, and Hyogo, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 10, 15, and 21, respectively. The use rate of beds is approximately 30% in all prefectures. The nighttime population has turned to increase in Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo, and Shiga. There has particularly been a recent increase in Hyogo and Shiga. Accordingly, the number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored. In Nara and Wakayama, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 15 and 7, respectively.

  4. Chukyo/Tokai

    In Aichi, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 20. The number of inpatients has also been decreasing, and the use rate of beds is in the order of 30%. The number of patients in home care and arranging accommodation for care has also been decreasing to approximately 42. Also in Gifu, Shizuoka, and Mie, the number of patients in home care and arranging accommodation for care has been decreasing to approximately 13, 8, and 8, respectively. The use rate of beds is in the order of 20% in Gifu and Mie, and in the order of 10% in Shizuoka. The nighttime population has turned to increase in Aichi and continued to increase in Mie. The number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored.

  5. Hokkaido

    The number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 8 (approximately 12 in Sapporo City). The number of inpatients has been decreasing, and the use rate of beds for severe patients remains below 20%.

  6. Kyushu

    In Fukuoka, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 13. The number of inpatients has been decreasing, and the use rate of beds for severe patients remains below 20%. The nighttime population has started to increase. Accordingly, the number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored. In the other prefectures in Kyushu, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing.

  7. Other regions
    • Regions under emergency situation measures: In Ibaragi, Tochigi, Gunma, and Hiroshima, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 11, 12, 9, and 10, respectively. The use rate of beds is in the order of 20% in Ibaraki, Tochigi, and Gunma, and in the order of 10% in Hiroshima. The nighttime population has turned to increase in Gunma and continued to increase in Tochigi. The number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored.

    • Regions under priority measures: In Miyagi, Fukushima, Ishikawa, Okayama, and Kagawa, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 7, 3, 6, 5, and 4, respectively.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

  • The latest spread of infection, which was attributable to the delta variant and summer vacation, has been followed by a sharp and continuous decrease in infection cases nationwide, including the areas under emergency measures and priority measures, such as for prevention of the spread of disease, thanks to the cooperation of citizens and businesses with infection control measures, decreased nighttime populations, increased vaccination rates, decreased number of infection clusters in medical institutions and facilities for the elderly, etc. The numbers of patients receiving treatment and severe patients are steadily decreasing, and the medical care provision and public health systems are showing an improving trend.
  • Further progress in vaccination promises positive outcomes, but raises concerns about increased movement during consecutive holidays in September and re-opening of schools such as universities, which will increase opportunities of contact between people who do not usually meet, and concern about people who are relieved about the reported decrease in cases of new infection and then change their behavior to increase opportunities for contact. These factors can lead to a resurgence of new cases and therefore require careful monitoring.
  • The nationwide spread of infection so far has put a heavy burden on the medical care provision and public health systems. Given that some regions still have many severe patients and limited access to general healthcare services, it is crucial to thoroughly take the necessary measures to lower infection cases as far as possible. When considering relaxing measures, a step-by-step approach should be taken to meet the conditions in individual regions. Areas with a high infection risk can cause circulation and lingering of the infection, and therefore require thorough implementation of the relevant measures.
  • Vaccination should continually be promoted. However, given the accompanying changes in the pathological features of infected patients, and to become ready for a potential resurgence in infections, the medical care provision and public health systems should be reinforced. Attention should also be paid to overseas countries that have taken a lead in the implementation of vaccinations, yet are suffering a resurgence in infections. It is also necessary to get ready for the upcoming fall and winter influenza season.
  1. Thorough basic measures against infection

    For those who have already been vaccinated, people should not go far from home or gather in large groups when it cannot be helped but to go out, and should stay away from settings with a high risk of infection such as crowded places and times of crowding. Reinforce awareness of basic anti-infection measures, such as how to correctly wear a mask and clean one’s hands, avoid the three Cs (avoid all three), and ventilate. Also make sure to promote full compliance with the guidelines for different businesses, continue workplace measures against infection, provide an environment that encourages employees to get vaccinated, establish online meetings as a general rule, and promote working from home. Vaccination should continually be actively encouraged and people should undergo testing or see a doctor, even if they feel only slightly unwell.

  2. Maximize the effective use of medical resources

    Maximize the use of local medical resources to ensure the medical care required for COVID-19 patients while minimizing the impact on the general medical care. Assuming that the infection status will become more severe as winter approaches, take the following measures urgently: sort out the ideal medical care provision system for the entire region; organize temporary medical facilities and facilities for patients waiting for hospitalization; strengthen the systems for home and accommodation medical care; and establish systems to secure medical human resources.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)

 

Copyright 1998 National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan

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