56th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (October 20, 2021).  Material 1

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

• The number of new cases of infection nationwide has continuously decreased with the ratio of this week to last week at 0.65 on the basis of reporting dates; it was approximately 3 per 100,000 population. It is still lower than the level before the latest spread of infection or before the spread at the time of the last spring.
• The numbers of patients receiving treatment, severe patients, and deaths have also been decreasing with the decreasing number of new cases of infection. The number of severe patients has fallen below the level before the latest spread of infection or before the spread at the time of the last spring. On the other hand, the number of deaths has exceeded the level before the latest spread of infection.
• After the lifting of the emergency measures and priority measures to prevent the spread of disease, the nighttime population has been growing in many regions, requiring continued careful monitoring of the number of new cases of infection.

  Effective reproduction number: On a national basis, the most recent number remains below 1 at 0.68 (as of October 3). The figure is 0.66 in the Tokyo metro area and 0.67 in the Kansai area.

  (Note) Aggregation of numbers reported by individual local governments. Based on the date of publication.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

• The number of new cases of infection keeps decreasing owing to the cooperation of many citizens and businesses so far and increased vaccination rates.
• On the other hand, after the lifting of the emergency measures etc., the nighttime population keeps growing in many regions, raising concern that the decrease in the number of infection cases will slow down or bottom out. It is important to look ahead to the future spread of infection, maintain the current improvement in the infection status, and further decrease the number of infection cases.
  Given the expected increase in socioeconomic activities and decrease in temperature toward the end of the year, it should also be kept in mind that people will become more active indoors. Considering that some countries leading in vaccinations have seen a resurgence after a massive easing of restrictions, a gradual easing of measures is desired.
• Some regions have seen clusters in restaurants and facilities for the elderly. This makes it important to nip the bud of any spread of infection as far as possible through thorough implementation of an active epidemiological investigation according to the local status of infection etc. as another measure against clusters. In a phase where the number of infection cases has decreased, it is important to adequately conduct a "retrospective active epidemiological investigation" to identify potential sources of infection and exploit the findings to develop countermeasures. For example, if the issue is spreading of infection in a population with fewer opportunities for vaccination, one conceivable countermeasure is to provide the population opportunities to be vaccinated.
• It is also important to continue requesting citizens and businesses to cooperate with basic anti-infection measures such as wearing a mask correctly, hand washing, avoiding the three Cs (avoid all three), and ventilation. After expiration of the request for restaurants to keep shorter operating hours, the measures will gradually be eased in some regions; however, there remains the concern that the accumulation of high-risk situations can lead to an outbreak. For this reason, dining customers are advised to choose third-party certified restaurants and wear masks when not eating or drinking. The national and local governments are required to raise public awareness to avoid crowded places and times and act in small groups when going out, while calling on businesses to implement flexible ways of working through such arrangements as working from home.
• The framework of the overall picture of measures to ensure that safety is security against the next spread of infection, announced on October 15, requires that the flow from prevention through detection and early treatment be reinforced by disseminating vaccinations, tests, therapeutic agents, etc. and that the medical care provision and public health systems be strengthened in preparation for the next spread of infection.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)