57th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (October 26, 2021).  Material 1

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

• The number of new cases of infection nationwide has continuously decreased and the ratio of this week to last week is 0.57 on the basis of reporting dates; it was approximately 2 per 100,000 population, which is the lowest level since the summer last year. On the other hand, the number of new cases of infection in people in their 60s or older and in their teens or younger has been decreasing; of all the infected patients, however, the proportion of those in their 60s or older has increased to a little less than 20% from the lowest, which had been recorded in August, and the proportion of those in their teens or younger has remained at about 20% since September.
• The number of patients receiving treatment, severe patients, and deaths has also been decreasing with the decreasing number of new cases of infection. The number of severe patients has fallen below the level before the latest spread of infection or before the spread last spring. On the other hand, the number of deaths has exceeded the level before the latest spread of infection.
• After lifting of the emergency situation measures, the nighttime population has been growing in many regions, requiring continued careful monitoring of the number of new cases of infection.

  Effective reproduction number:On a national basis, the most recent number remains below 1 at 0.70 (as of October 9). The figure is 0.60 in the Tokyo metro area and 0.68 in the Kansai area.

  (Note) Aggregation of the number of deaths reported by individual local governments. Based on the date of publication.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

• Even after lifting of the emergency situation measures, etc., the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing nationwide and has reached a very low level, owing to the cooperation of many citizens and businesses with infection control measures, the improvement in the vaccination rate (about 70% of all citizens who have completed two vaccinations), etc. However, the nighttime population has been growing in many regions, and in some regions, clusters and infection cases with an unknown transmission route have sporadically occurred, showing a temporary tendency of increase. Consequently, there is concern about slowing or cessation of the decrease in the number of infected patients. It is also necessary to keep in mind that as temperatures fall, more activities will be conducted indoors for the time being and that this infection may be spread again in the future. On the other hand, it is important to maintain the current infection status, which has improved and reached these low levels.
• This makes it important to nip the bud of any spread of infection as far as possible through continued thorough implementation of an active epidemiological investigation as another measure against clusters. Vaccination also needs to be provided to unvaccinated people. In foreign countries where vaccination started earlier, breakthrough infection and infection rebounds have occurred in the course of a decrease in neutralizing antibody titers or significant relaxation of regulations, and therefore attention should be paid when mitigating the measures. At the same time, additional vaccination should be considered.
• Based on the above circumstances, vaccination should continuously be provided. In addition, each person is required to take actions to prevent the spread of infection because social and economic activities are expected to increase toward the end of the year. It is also important to continuously request citizens including those who are vaccinated and businesses to cooperate with basic anti-infection measures such as wearing a mask correctly, hand washing, avoiding the three Cs (avoid all three, namely closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings), and ventilation. In addition, people are required to undergo tests and examinations in case of any poor health conditions. Except for some prefectures, the request to restaurants to keep shorter operating hours has been withdrawn, and other countermeasures against the infection have gradually been eased. Consequently, opportunities for eating, drinking in restaurants, sometimes in groups, are expected to increase from now on. However, there remains the concern that the accumulation of high-risk situations can lead to an outbreak. For this reason, dining customers are advised to choose third-party certified restaurants and wear masks when not eating or drinking.
• The national and local governments are required to raise public awareness to avoid crowded places and times and act in small groups when going out, while calling on businesses to implement flexible ways of applying such arrangements as working from home.
• The Government policy announced on October 15 requires that the flow from prevention through detection and early treatment be reinforced by disseminating vaccinations, tests, therapeutic agents, etc. and that the medical care provision and public health systems be strengthened in preparation for the next wave of spreading of the infection.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)