58th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (November 9, 2021).  Material 1

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

• The number of new cases of infection nationwide has been decreasing, and the ratio of numbers this week to last week is 0.76 (based on report date). This represents approximately 1 case per 100,000 of the population, which is the lowest level since the summer of last year. The numbers of patients receiving treatment, severe patients, and deaths have also been decreasing. The number of severe patients is at its lowest level since autumn of last year, while that of deaths has dropped below the levels prior to the latest spread of the infection.

  Effective reproduction number:On a national basis, the most recent number remains below 1, at 0.81 (as of October 24), with values of 0.72 in the Tokyo metro area and 0.89 in the Kansai area.

  (Note) The number of deaths is an aggregation of the numbers reported by individual local governments. Based on the date of publication.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

• Due to the cooperation of many citizens and businesses toward infection control and an improvement in the vaccination rate (persons who have completed the second vaccination account for more than 70% of all citizens, and approximately 70% of persons aged 12 to 19 years have already received one vaccination), etc., the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing nationwide since November, and has remained at substantially low levels. Nevertheless, transmission of the infection is still continuing. In some regions, the nighttime population has been growing. In addition, clusters in restaurants and facilities, as well as cases of infection with an unknown transmission route have occurred sporadically, indicating a tendency toward temporary increases. However, no regions have shown a continuous increase in the number of new infections. For the time being, it is also necessary to pay attention to an increase in indoor activities due to the decreasing temperature. A further activation of socioeconomic activities is expected toward the end of the year, due to annual events such as year-end parties, and the Christmas and New Year's holidays. Under these circumstances, in anticipation of a re-expansion of the infection in the future, it is important to maintain the current improving infection status and low infection levels.
• Accordingly, it is important to prevent any spread of infection via the continued thorough implementation of an active epidemiological investigation, as a measure against clusters. Provision of vaccination is also needed for unvaccinated persons. In foreign countries where vaccinations started earlier, breakthrough infections have occurred due to a decrease in neutralizing antibody titers, and infection rebounds have occurred during the course of significant relaxations of regulations. Therefore, care should be taken when implementing reductions in measures. At the same time, additional vaccination should be considered.
• Based on these circumstances, vaccination should be promoted continuously, and each person must take actions to prevent the spread of the infection. It is also important to continuously request citizens including those who are vaccinated and businesses to cooperate with basic anti-infection measures such as wearing a mask correctly, hand washing, avoiding the three Cs (avoid all three, namely closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings), and ventilation. In addition, people are required to undergo tests and examinations in case of any poor health conditions. When customers eat and drink at restaurants, an overlap of several high-risk situations can lead to an outbreak. For this reason, dining customers are advised to choose third-party certified restaurants, and to wear masks when not eating or drinking.
• The national and local governments are required to raise public awareness to avoid crowded places and times and act in small groups when going out, while calling on businesses to implement flexible ways of applying such arrangements as working from home. In addition, local governments are required to provide information to persons who have not been vaccinated.
• The Government policy announced on October 15 requires that the flow from prevention through detection and early treatment be reinforced by disseminating vaccinations, tests, therapeutic agents, etc. and that the medical care provision and public health systems be strengthened in preparation for the next wave of spreading of the infection.
• A new concept of level classification was presented at the Subcommittee on Novel Coronavirus Disease Control held on November 8. Each local government is required to examine the number of beds needed after a certain period of time, which is estimated via prediction tools and other indicators, using data obtained from previous spreads of the infection.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)