59th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (November 17, 2021).  Material 1

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

• The number of new cases of infection nationwide (based on the date of reporting) has been decreasing, and the ratio of this week to last week is 0.87. The number per 100,000 population has been approximately 1 in the last week, the lowest since the summer last year. With the decrease in the number of new cases of infection, the numbers of patients receiving treatment, severe patients, and deaths have also been decreasing.
• The proportion of the number of new cases of infection by age group has been increasing for people in their 60s and older, which is a little under 20%, while that in people in their 10s and younger has been leveling off at approximately 20%.

  Effective reproduction number:On a national basis, the most recent number remains below 1, at 0.84 (as of October 31), with values of 0.96 in the Tokyo metro area and 0.80 in the Kansai area.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

• The number of new cases of infection is very low across the country, but the infection is continuing to spread. The nighttime populations keep growing in some regions with temporary upward trends in the number of infections due to clusters at restaurants and facilities or sporadic untraceable cases, but no regions have seen continued upward trends of infection. Indoor activities will increase as it gets colder towards the end of the year, and socioeconomic activities are expected to increase further with annual events such as year-end parties and the Christmas and new year holidays. In anticipation of a future resurgence of infections, it is important to maintain the current low levels of infection.
• Approximately 75% of the country's population have been fully vaccinated with two doses, and more than 70% of those aged 12 to 19 years have been vaccinated with one dose. To further increase vaccination rates, it is necessary to promote vaccination of unvaccinated people, and local governments are required to promote communication of information to those who still have to be vaccinated. It is also necessary to prepare for additional vaccinations starting in December. On the other hand, some countries that started vaccination earlier have seen breakthrough infections due to waning neutralizing antibody titers and rebound of infections amid significantly eased restrictions; this should be kept in mind when considering to ease the measures. Close monitoring of emerging variants should also be continued.
• Given the current situation that the infection keeps spreading, although at low levels, it is important to continue requesting citizens and businesses, including those vaccinated, to cooperate with basic anti-infection measures such as correctly wearing masks, hand washing, avoiding the three Cs, and ventilation. In addition, people have to undergo tests and examinations in case their health condition deteriorates even slightly. Since an overlap of several high-risk situations while eating and drinking may lead to an outbreak, customers are advised to choose third-party certified establishments and to wear masks when not eating or drinking.
• Given the new classification of levels proposed on November 8 by the Subcommittee on Novel Coronavirus Disease Control, each local government is required to determine the number of beds required in a projected period of time, which will be estimated based on prediction tools and other indices using data from previous waves of infection, etc.
• The “overall picture of measures to ensure safety against the next spread of infection” decided on November 12 requires reinforcement of the flow from prevention to discovery and early treatment through widespread availability of vaccines, tests, therapeutic agents, etc. and strengthening of the medical care and public health systems in preparation for the next spread of infection, in an attempt to create a new normal that allows socioeconomic activities to continue while reducing the risk of infection.
• In this regard, the vaccine and test package proposed on November 16 by the Subcommittee on Novel Coronavirus Disease Control can be utilized, even under emergency measures and primary measures to prevent the spread of disease, to ease the behavioral restrictions on such activities as eating and drinking, attendance at events, and human movement. However, it should be kept in mind that even vaccinated people can become infected and that it has not been completely ruled out that vaccinated people may transmit infection to unvaccinated people.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)