9th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (September 24, 2020). Document 3
Recent infection status
Trends in the number of new infections
- Infections by time of onset nationwide are decreasing from the peak seen at the end of July, but this trend appears to have slowed down. Since the last week of August, the effective reproduction number in Tokyo, Osaka, and Aichi has remained approximately 1, and the latest nationwide number is also close to 1.
- New infections were showing a decrease nationwide, possibly owing to active measures in high-risk places such as night clubs and similar entertainment establishments where food and beverages are served, cooperation with the request for self-restraint by prefectural governments, and changes in the behavior of citizens; however, the number of new infections is showing a slight increase and attention should be paid to this trend.
▪ Cumulative number of infections per 100,000 population for one week (September 9 to 15 and 16 to 22): 2.96 (3,731↑) and 2.61 (3,287↓) nationwide, 9.02 (1,255↑) and 8.05 (1,120↓) in Tokyo, 2.79 (211↑) and 2.52 (190↓) in Aichi, 6.37 (561↑) and 5.04 (444↓) in Osaka, and 2.27 (116↓) and 0.92 (47↓) in Fukuoka
▪ Rate of cases with unknown infection route (September 12 to 18): 48.4% (0.5%↓ from previous week) nationwide, 50.5% (3.5%↓) in Tokyo
Trends in the number of inpatients (*)
- The number of inpatients is showing a decreasing tendency. The ratio of the number of inpatients to the number of available beds (in parentheses) is similar, but slightly higher in some regions.
・Number of inpatients (September 16): 3,754↓ (14.2%) nationwide, 1,234↓ (30.9%) in Tokyo, 172↓ (21.7%) in Aichi, 375↓ (28.3%) in Osaka, 144↓ (29.4%) in Fukuoka, and 145↓ (31.2%) in Okinawa - The number of patients with severe disease has been increasing from early July, but has been decreasing since late August onward.
・Number of patients with severe disease (September 16): 316 (300↓) (9.6% [9.1%]) nationwide, 116↑ (23.2%) in Tokyo, and 19↑ (27.1%) in Aichi,51 (35↓) (19.5% [13.4%]) in Osaka (*), 10↓ (16.7%) in Fukuoka, and 22↑ (41.5%) in Okinawa
Test system
- Although the number of tests has fluctuated, the rate of positive test results to the most recent number of tests is 2.9%, which remains low compared to that under the state of emergency (8.8% from April 6 to 12). However, attention should be paid to the influence of a decrease in the number of tests due to 4 consecutive holidays (Silver Week).
・Number of tests (September 7 to 13 and 14 to 20 [*]): 126,734↓ and 81,024↓ nationwide, 37,369↑ and 19,614↓ in Tokyo, 4,315↑ and 3,006↓ in Aichi, 9,986↓ and 6,409 in Osaka, and 6,652 ↓ and 4,899↓ in Fukuoka
・Rate of positive test results (September 7 to 13 and 14 to 20 [*]): 2.9% (0.1% points↓ from the previous week) and 4.3% (1.4% points↑) nationwide, 3.3% (0.5% points↑) and 6.1% (2.8% points↑) in Tokyo, 4.6% (0.4% points↓) and 6.9% (2.3% points ↑) in Aichi, 5.7% (1.2% points↓) and 7.2% (1.5% points↑) in Osaka, and 1.9% (1.0% points↓) and 1.2% (0.7 points↓) in Fukuoka
Concerning the number of patients with severe disease, the criteria for targets differ from those published on August 14 or earlier. ↑ represents an increase from the previous week, and ↓ represents a decrease.
*Concerning the number of patients with severe disease, the criteria for the targets differ from those published from September 16. The figures in parentheses represent comparison with the same criteria for the previous week.
*Numbers of tests between 9/14 and 20 are provisional, and do not include some results obtained from private laboratories and medical institutions. The rates of positive test results are also provisional since these figures were obtained by dividing the number of positive patients by the number of tests.
Evaluation of Recent Infectious Status
Infection status
- New infections have been decreasing from the peak seen nationwide in the first week of August, but this trend appears to have slowed down. The epidemic curve based on the date of onset has shown a downward trend from the peak seen on July 27 to 29, but this trend has slowed down. The rate of positive test results decreased by 0.1% points from the previous week to 2.9%. (during the week of September 13)
- Since the first week of August, new infections have been decreasing, possibly due to active measures in high-risk places where spread of the infection may be triggered, such as night clubs and similar entertainment establishments where food and beverages are served, effective cooperation with the request for self-restraint by prefectural governments, and the effects of changes in the behavior of citizens who watch news reports on the spread of infection.
- On the other hand, since the last week of August, the decreasing trend in new infections has stopped and a slight increasing trend has been observed in multiple municipalities. Attention should be paid to these trends. In particular, the effective reproduction number in Tokyo, Osaka, and Aichi remains approximately 1 and the latest nationwide number is also close to 1. This suggests that the infection has spread through such opportunities as business dinners and workplace contacts as social activities are increasing. It is necessary to pay continuous attention to prevent the spread of infection nationwide, including the influence of increased movement of people during the Silver Week holidays and the influence of a decreased number of tests.
- The proportion of middle-aged and elderly people among infected patients has also been fluctuating at higher levels than in June and July, and continuous attention should therefore be paid. On the other hand, the number of patients with severe disease has been increasing from early July, and has turned to decrease from late August onward.
- It is necessary to note that the spread of infection continues around the world with approximately 300,000 new infections reported every day.
Future actions
- It is necessary to continue with active measures in high-risk places such as night clubs and similar entertainment establishments where food and beverages are served, where spread of the infection is triggered in Japan, and to reinforce measures against opportunities to develop cluster infections, including business dinners and workplace contacts. Movement of people and face-to-face social activities are expected to increase (e.g., holding of events, travel, resumption of on-campus classes). Therefore, the necessary measures should be thoroughly applied, e.g., basic preventive measures against infection such as avoiding the “3Cs” and environments where loud voices are raised, the wearing of masks indoors, keeping a proper physical distance, and thorough ventilation.
- It is also necessary to minimize the number of patients with severe disease and deaths by implementing measures against infection in hospitals/facilities for elderly people. The required measures should continuously be taken, including prompt actions against cluster outbreaks.
- On the other hand, spread of infection may be triggered in different places in the future, and it is required to organize a system of taking prompt and appropriate actions against large-scale clusters and cluster chains that may be the origin of infection spread in reference to overseas findings. It is also necessary to take note of possible unexpected re-spread in some regions.
Number of new infections (per 100,000 people) etc. (PDF)