11th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (October 22, 2020). Document 3
Latest infection status, etc
Trends in the number of new infections
- On a national basis, while the number of new infections continued to decrease after reaching a peak in the first week of August, it has since become broadly flat to slightly up, which suggests a competition between “increasing factors” and “decreasing factors” for the infection.
- Neither a significant increase nor sharp decrease has been observed in many prefectures. However, regions where the number of infections remains high or increases still exist, and clusters of infections in downtown areas, and at restaurants/nightclubs providing hospitality services in local cities have also occurred.
- The effective reproduction number is around 1 in Tokyo, Osaka, Hokkaido, Okinawa, etc., and the average for the last week exceeds 1 in many regions. On a national basis, it remains at a level close to 1.
- Cumulative number of infections in 1 week per 100,000 people (October 7 to 13 and October 14 to 20):2.84 (3,585 ↑) and 2.95 (3,716 ↑) nationwide, 8.85 (1,232 ↑) and 8.83 (1,229 ↓) in Tokyo,1.56 (118 ↓) and 1.75 (132 ↑) in Aichi, 3.97 (350 ↓) and 4.21 (371 ↑) in Osaka,1.00 (51 ↑) and 0.84 (43 ↓) in Fukuoka, and 9.50 (138 ↓) and 14.38 (209 ↑) in Okinawa- Proportion of patients whose route of infection cannot be identified (October 10 to 16): 49.0% (4.6% points ↓ compared to the previous week) nationwide, and 55.9% (4.6% points ↓) in Tokyo
Trends in the number of inpatients (*)
- The number of inpatients had been decreasing since late August, but has recently started to increase again. While the ratio of the number of infections to the number of beds secured for patients (in parenthesis) has been flat, it remains at a slightly high level in some regions.
- The number of severe patients had been decreasing since late August, but has recently started to increase again, and is showing signs of having bottomed out.
Test system
- Although the number of tests fluctuates, the most recent proportion of test-positive persons to the number of tests is 2.8%, which remains low compared to that at the time of declaration of a state of emergency (8.8% for the period from April 6 to 12).
- Number of tests (October 5 to 11 and October 12 to 18): 129,212 ↓ and 31,554 ↑ nationwide, 36,339 ↓ and 35,215 ↓ in Tokyo, 3,479 ↓ and 3,998 ↑ in Aichi, 9,131 ↓ and 9,972 ↑ in Osaka, 2,875 ↑ and 3,627 ↑ in Okinawa- Proportion of test-positive persons (October 5 to 11 and October 12 to 18) : 2.8% (0.2% points ↑ compared to the previous week) and 2.8% (0.0% points →) nationwide,3.4% (0.2% points ↑) and 3.6% (0.2% points ↑) in Tokyo, 2.9% (0.5% points ↓) and 3.7% (0.8% points ↑) in Aichi, 3.8% (0.3% points ↑) and 3.6% (0.2% points ↓) in Osaka, and 5.3% (2.6% points ↓) and 5.0% (0.3% points ↓) in Okinawa
*“Trends in the number of inpatients” are based on the “Surveillance of Status of Care for Patients with Novel Coronavirus Infection and Number of Beds” by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. In this surveillance, results as of 0:00 on the presentation date are to be published.
For the number of severe patients, the subject criteria are different from those for data published before August 14. ↑, ↓, and → indicate an increase, a decrease, and the same level, compared to the previous week, respectively.
Evaluation of Recent Infectious Status
Infection status
- On a national basis, while the number of new infections continued to decrease after reaching a peak in the first week of August, it has since been broadly flat to slightly up, which suggests a competition between “increasing factors” and “decreasing factors” for the infection. The number of infections has not taken a downward turn in the Tokyo metropolitan area, which is probably contributing to the current situation, in which no continuous decrease has been observed on a national basis.
Increasing factors (examples): a growing desire among people to return to “normal life,” as much as possible revitalizes their activities. Concomitantly, situations where clusters of infections occur are becoming more diverse.Decreasing factors (examples): Situations that present a high risk of infection are becoming clear, and people refrain from such high-risk places/behaviors. Further, even in the case of clusters of infections, the involved persons are able to make use of past experience to take prompt and effective actions. - Attention should be given to trends by region. Neither a significant increase nor a sharp decrease has been observed in many prefectures. However, regions in which the number of infections remains high or is increasing still exist, and clusters of infections in downtown areas, or at restaurants/nightclubs providing hospitality services in local cities have also occurred. As the balance between increasing and decreasing factors can be disrupted at any time, careful attention needs to be paid to future trends in infections.
Future actions
- Aggressive actions should be continued at high-risk places such as restaurants/nightclubs with hospitality services, which has triggered the spread of infection in Japan. In addition, both a review and thorough implementation of infection prevention measures are required for situations where clusters of infections have occurred, such as business dinners, meetings, and workplaces.
- Clusters of infections have been observed, in particular, in entertainment districts in local cities, as well as communities with specific lifestyles (e.g., communal living), which indicates that the situation is becoming increasingly diverse. A revitalization of peoples’ activities (e.g., student activities associated with the resumption of face-to-face classes at universities) may induce the spread of infection through new situations. Accordingly, it is necessary to take early and appropriate actions to prevent large-scale clusters of infections or cluster chains, such as the provision of information according to the characteristics of the target persons, as well as aggressive, widespread tests of relevant local persons. In such a case, we also need to prevent increases in the number of severe patients and deaths, while controlling the balance between infection prevention measures and family visits at hospitals/facilities for the elderly.
- Under circumstances where a revitalization of social activities is anticipated, it is important to continue to thoroughly implement basic infection prevention measures, such as avoiding the “3Cs” and situations where people speak loudly, wearing masks in rooms or situations where people have contact with others (note that face/mouth shields are less effective than masks), strict physical distancing, and thorough ventilation. Based on the analysis of clusters of infections, clear explanations regarding specific risky behaviors (e.g., eating and drinking in scenes that present an increased risk of infection) and methods to reduce risk should be provided to the public.
- Efforts to improve the infection status, in a situation in which increasing and decreasing factors are competing, need to be made through these actions. Although the establishment of target levels as well as quantitative analyses are required, we should hold a discussion on future actions, including those for the year-end and New Year holidays, as infections are expected to occur in association with the movement of people.