Jpn. J. Infect. Dis., 58 (6), S1-S2, 2005
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International Symposium on Infectious Agent Transmission Model Building -Focusing on Assessment of Risk to Communities
Kazuo Suzuki*, Kenji Yamamoto1 and Hiroshi Yoshikura
National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo 162-8640 and 1International Medical Center of Japan, Research Institute, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan
*Corresponding author: E-mail: ksuzuki@nih.go.jp
SUMMARY: The Susceptible Infected and Recovery (SIR) Model proposed by Robert May in the UK is the basis of the present mathematical model building of infectious disease epidemics. Need for model building incorporating more social and other relevant factors has been recognized. An important example is the introduction of idea of the scale-free distribution of links among the people. More refined models by taking into account the nature of a pathogen, geo-sociological factors, lifestyles of the people, etc., have been developed. For example, Koopman proposed a model for prediction of epidemic expansion based on actual epidemiological data. Eubank proposed a model assessing the bio-terror attack using a model city where every day activity is going on. The present workshop, participated by experts from the US, the UK and Japan, is the first meeting of the proposed series of conference on this issue.