Jpn. J. Infect. Dis., 55, 23-26, 2002
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Epidemiological Report
Evaluation of a Sentinel Surveillance System for Influenza, 1995-2000, Kyoto City, Japan
Hayato Fujii1,3*, Hiroshi Takahashi2, Takaaki Ohyama2, Nobuhiko Okabe2, Koichi Hashimoto3, Wataru Doi4 and Yoshiaki Karouji5
1Field Epidemiology Training Program and 2Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Toyama 1-23-1, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8640, 3Community Medicine Section and 4Public Health Promotion Section, Health and Welfare Bureau, Kamihonnoujimae-cho 488, Teramachi Oike, Nakagyo-ku, Kyoto 604-8571 and 5Division of Microbiology, Kyoto City Institute of Health and Environmental Sciences, Higashitakada-cho 1-2, Mibu, Nakagyo-ku, Kyoto 604-8845, Japan
(Received December 3, 2001. Accepted April 2, 2002)
SUMMARY: We compared a municipal sentinel surveillance
system for influenza with the Microbial Isolation Surveillance
System (MISS) in Kyoto City, Japan. Sensitivity, specificity,
and predictive value positive (PVP) of the Influenza Sentinel
Surveillance System (ISSS) compared to the MISS were calculated
by influenza season and by month. Sensitivity ranged from 80 to
97%, specificity ranged from 55 to 77%, and PVP ranged
from 29 to 52% by season (P < 0.001). On the other hand,
sensitivity ranged from 86 to 100%, specificity ranged from 38
to 66%, and PVP ranged from 31 to 50% by month (P <
0.001). Specificity was calculated as 93% in November. The sensitivity
of ISSS was found to be sufficient regardless of the magnitude
of influenza activity. Specificity varied by season, indicating
the difficulty of clinically diagnosing other respiratory illnesses.
The PVP remained at less than 50% before and after the influenza
seasons and it varied year by year. In general, the ISSS is a
good surveillance system for monitoring influenza activity.
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