54th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (October 6, 2021).  Material 1

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

• The number of new cases of infection nationwide (based on the reporting dates) has decreased. The figure has been approximately 7 per 100,000 people over the last week, showing a decrease to the level before the spread of infection in this phase.
• With the decrease in the number of new cases of infection, the number of patients receiving treatment, the number of severe patients and the number of deaths (*) have also decreased. However, it should be noted that many severe patients are still receiving treatment, mainly in the metropolitan areas. The public health and medical care provision systems are still in showing an improving trend.

  Effective reproduction number: On a national basis, the most recent number remains below 1 at 0.61 (as of September 19). The figure is 0.58 in the Tokyo metro area and 0.62 in the Kansai area.

  (*) Aggregation of numbers reported by individual local governments. Based on the date of publication.

Analysis of infection status [local trends]

* The value of new cases of infection is the total number for the latest week of reporting dates per 100,000 population.

1. Tokyo metro area (Tokyo and 3 neighboring prefectures)

   In Tokyo, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 9. The numbers of inpatients and severe patients have also been decreasing. Patients in their 60s and older account for 15% of new cases of infection, 34% of inpatients, and 40% of severe patients. Note that the percentage of patients in their 60s and older has been on an increasing trend among inpatients and severe patients since August. In Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 8, 7, and 7, respectively. The use rate of beds and the use rate of beds for severe patients have been decreasing. The nighttime population in the entire Tokyo metro area has remarkably increased since the declaration of the state of emergency has been lifted. The number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored.

2. Okinawa

   The number of new cases of infection remains at a record high of approximately 20 in Japan, but the ratio of this week to last week has continued to decrease to 0.45. The use rate of beds and the use rate of beds for severe patients have been decreasing, and both are in the order of 10%. The number of patients in home care and arranged accommodation for care has also been decreasing to approximately 37.

3. Kansai area

   Osaka, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 17. The numbers of inpatients and severe patients have also been decreasing, and the use rate of beds is in the order of 20%. In Kyoto and Hyogo, the number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 8 and 10, respectively. The nighttime population increased in Osaka and Hyogo. The increase In is remarkable, especially after the declaration of the state of emergency has been lifted. The number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored.

4. Aichi

   The number of new cases of infection has continued to decrease to approximately 8. The number of inpatients has also been decreasing, and the use rate of beds is in the order of 10%. The nighttime population has been increasing. Accordingly, the number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored.

5. Hokkaido

   The number of new cases of infection has been decreasing to approximately 3 (approximately 5 in Sapporo City). The number of inpatients has been decreasing, and the use rate of beds for severe patients is below 10%. The nighttime population increased from around the time when the declaration of the state of emergency was lifted. The increase is remarkable especially after the declaration of the state of emergency was lifted. The number of new cases of infection should be carefully monitored.

6. Fukuoka

   The number of new cases of infection has continued to decrease to approximately 5. The number of inpatients has also been decreasing, and the use rate of beds for severe patients is in the order of 10%. The nighttime population increased slightly.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

• On October 1, the emergency measures and the priority measures, such as those for the prevention of the spread of disease, were all lifted. This shows that the nationwide number of infections has rapidly decreased owing to the cooperation of citizens and business operators with infection control measures, a decrease in the nighttime population, improvement in the vaccination rate, and decreases in cluster infections in medical institutions and facilities for elderly people, and the number of patients receiving treatment and that of severe patients have steadily decreased, resulting in a reduction in the burden on the medical care provision and public health systems.
• While it is expected that further promotion of vaccination will bear fruit, attention should be paid to the many severe patients receiving treatment mainly in metropolitan areas. There is also concern about increased opportunities of contact with people because people have become relieved about the reported decrease in cases of new infections and the restrictions are mitigated by the nationwide lifting of the state of emergency, but these factors may lead to a resurgence in new cases. It is therefore necessary to ask for the cooperation of citizens and business operators to maintain the decreasing trend in the number of infections with thorough basic measures against infection and to prevent a resurgence in new cases of infection.
• Vaccination should continually be promoted. However, given the accompanying changes in the epidemiological features and the pathological features of infected patients, and to become ready for a potential resurgence in infections, the medical care provision and public health systems should be reinforced. In this regard, while inhibition of the spread of infection and prevention of aggravation of the disease are expected with further promotion of vaccination, breakthrough infection due to attenuation of the effect of the vaccine is also predicted. Testing of vaccinated persons is still required if they have symptoms of the disease. The proportion of elderly persons that are infected may also increase again with the future spread of infection, and the trend in the number of patients in each age group should be carefully monitored.

1. ★ Thorough basic measures against infection

   Basic anti-infection measures include the proper wearing of a mask, washing of hands, avoidance of the three Cs (avoidance of all three), and ventilation by individuals, while people should immediately contact a doctor, even if they feel only slightly unwell. People should continue to eat and drink in small groups for a short period of time, and a mask should be worn when not eating or drinking. The national and local governments should also call attention for people to avoid crowded places and times and to act in small groups of people when going out, and to promote flexible workstyles in view of the state of promoting teleworking by companies according to the revised basic policy.

2. ★ Reinforcement of medical care provision and public health systems in preparation for re-spreading of infection

   Based on “Future Actions for Novel Coronavirus Infection” summarized on September 28, assuming that similar dimension or speed of infection spread to those observed in various regions in this phase of infection spread may occur in the future, measures should be promptly taken such as organizing of temporary medical facilities/facilities for patients waiting to be hospitalized, strengthening of the systems for home and accommodation medical care, enhancement of the system of administering therapeutic drugs including neutralizing antibody drugs in inpatient and outpatient settings and during doctor’s visits, and of establishing systems to secure medical human resources and a testing system. Local governments should actively promote vaccination.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)