55th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (October 13, 2021).  Material 1

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

• The numbers of new cases of infection nationwide (based on the reporting dates) continue to decrease. The number for the latest week was approximately 4 per 100,000 of the population, not only lower than the levels before the latest spread of infection but also before the previous spread. The number per prefecture was less than approximately 10 per 100,000 of the population in all prefectures.
• Although the numbers of patients receiving treatment, severe patients, and deaths have also been decreasing with the decreasing number of new cases of infection, the numbers of severe patients and deaths have not reached the levels before the latest spread of infection.
• After lifting of the emergency measures and priority measures to prevent the spread of disease, the nighttime population has been growing in many regions, requiring continued careful monitoring of the number of new cases of infection.

  Effective reproduction number: On a national basis, the most recent number remains below 1 at 0.63 (as of September 26). The figure is 0.63 in the Tokyo metro area and 0.64 in the Kansai area.

  (Note) Aggregation of numbers reported by individual local governments. Based on the date of publication.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

• For more than a month since late August, the effective reproduction number has remained between approximately 0.6 and 0.9, owing to the cooperation of citizens and businesses with infection control measures, decreased nighttime populations, improved vaccination rates, and decreased number of infection clusters in medical institutions and facilities for the elderly, etc. The number of new cases of infection has been decreasing even after the lifting of the emergency measures and priority measures to prevent the spread of disease.
• On the other hand, the nighttime population is obviously growing after the lifting of emergency measures, etc., with some regions showing an increase in the effective reproduction number at some point, raising concern that the decrease in the number of infections will slow down or bottom out. Although further progress in vaccination promises positive outcomes, it is important to look ahead to the possible future spread of infection, maintain the current improvement in the infection status as long as possible, and decrease the number of infection cases further steps.
• For this purpose, it is necessary to keep requesting citizens and businesses to cooperate with basic anti-infection measures, such as how to correctly wear a mask, hand washing, avoid the three Cs (avoid all three), and ventilate. It is also necessary to eat and drink in small groups and for a short period of time and to wear a mask when not eating or drinking. Based on the revised basic policy, the national and local governments are required to raise public awareness to avoid crowded places and time frames, and act in small groups, while calling on businesses to promote flexible ways of working through such arrangements as working from home. It should be noted that the causes of and contributions to the latest rapid decline should be further analyzed to prepare for a future spread of infection, and we as an advisory board will continue to work on it.
• It is necessary to continue steady promotion of vaccination among groups who are less vaccinated, such as young people, while strengthening the medical care provision and public health systems in preparation for a future spread of infection. Although further progress in vaccination is expected to reduce the spread of infection and prevent more severe cases, the waning of vaccine effectiveness may lead to an increase in breakthrough infections; therefore, even vaccinated people are advised to see a doctor or take a test if suspected of having symptoms. Antigen test kits are available for use as a self-check tool for those concerned about their physical condition at home.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)