国立感染症研究所

60th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (November 25, 2021).  Material 1

 

Evaluation of the latest infection status, etc.

Infection status

  • The number of new cases of infection nationwide (based on the date of reporting) has been decreasing, and the ratio of this week to last week is 0.68. The number per 100,000 population has been approximately 0.6 in the last week, the lowest since the summer last year. With the decrease in the number of new cases of infection, the numbers of patients receiving treatment, severe patients, and deaths have also been decreasing.
  • The proportion of the number of new cases of infection by age group has been increasing to 20% for people in their 60s and older, while that in people in their 10s and younger has been leveling off at approximately 20%.

    Effective reproduction number:On a national basis, the most recent number remains below 1, at 0.88 (as of November 7), with values of 1.12 in the Tokyo metro area and 0.81 in the Kansai area.

Future outlook and measures to be taken

  • The number of new cases of infection is very low across the country, but the infection is continuing to spread. The nighttime populations keep growing in some regions with temporary upward trends in the number of infections due to clusters at restaurants and facilities or sporadic untraceable cases. It should be watched whether this trend leads to continued upward trends of infection. Indoor activities will increase as it gets colder towards the end of the year, and the expected further increase in socioeconomic activities with annual events such as year-end parties and the Christmas and new year holidays. It is important to maintain the current low level of infection, and it is necessary to conduct a thorough active epidemiological survey.
  • Approximately 76% of the country's population has been fully vaccinated with two doses, and approximately 74% of those aged 12 to 19 years have been vaccinated with one dose. To further increase vaccination rates, it is necessary to promote vaccination of unvaccinated people, and local governments must promote the communication of information to those who still have to be vaccinated. It is also necessary to prepare for additional vaccinations starting in December. On the other hand, some countries that started vaccination earlier have seen breakthrough infections due to waning neutralizing antibody titers and rebound of infections amid significantly eased restrictions; this should be kept in mind when considering to ease the measures. Close monitoring of emerging variants should also be continued.
  • Given the current situation that the infection keeps spreading, although at low levels, it is important to continue requesting citizens and businesses, including those vaccinated, to cooperate with basic anti-infection measures such as correctly wearing masks, hand washing, avoiding the three Cs, and ventilation. In addition, people have to undergo tests and examinations in case their health condition deteriorates even slightly. Since there is an overlap of several high-risk situations while eating and drinking, which may lead to an outbreak, customers are advised to choose third-party certified establishments and to wear masks when not eating or drinking.
  • Based on the "overall picture of measures to ensure that safety is security against the next spread of infection" recently determined, it is required to create a new normal where it is possible to continue economic and social activities while reducing the risk of infection. In response to the policy, by means of the third-party certification system, the vaccine and test package, the behavioral restrictions on such activities as eating and drinking, attendance at events, and human movement will be eased, even under emergency measures in the future. However, it should be kept in mind that even vaccinated people can become infected and that it has not been completely ruled out that vaccinated people may transmit infection to unvaccinated people.
  • Local governments need to encourage people to take basic infection control measures when going out, and to avoid crowded places with a high infection risk, as well as to refrain from moving across prefectures, such as returning home or travelling, if they have symptoms including fever. Business operators must also make efforts, such as working from home, staggered working hours, and commuting by bicycle, to reduce contact with people.

Figures (Number of new infections reported etc.) (PDF)

 

Copyright 1998 National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan

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