10th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (October 13, 2020). Document 3
Recent infection status
Trends in the number of new infections
- The number of new infections has been increasing in some regions from around the end of September, after 4 consecutive holidays. Various trends, such as sporadic clusters have been observed in some regions, and attention should be paid to future trends in the spread of infection.
- Importantly, the effective reproduction number has been moving around 1 from the last week of August in Tokyo, Osaka, Hokkaido, and Okinawa, and has recently exceeded 1, when viewed on a nationwide basis. Accordingly, caution is required.
• Cumulative number of infections in one week per 100,000 people (September 28 to October 4, October 5 to 11): Nationwide (2.78 [3,507↑], 2.84 [3,589↑]), Tokyo (8.84 [1,230↑], 8.84 [1,231↑]), Aichi (1.95 [147↓], 1.35 [102↓]), Osaka (4.14 [365↓], 3.94 [347↓]),Fukuoka (0.59 [30↑], 0.92 [47↑]), and Okinawa (11.08 [161↑], 10.53 [153↓])
• Percentage of cases in which the infection route cannot be identified (September 26 to October 2): Nationwide, 49.4% (0.8% points↓ from the previous week); Tokyo, 53.8% (1.8% points↑)
Trends in the number of inpatients (*)
- The number of inpatients is decreasing. The regional rates of secured beds (shown in parenthesis) are similar, but slightly high in some regions.
• Number of inpatients (October 7): Nationwide, 2,979↓ (11.2%); Tokyo, 996↓ (24.9%); Aichi, 108↓ (13.7%); Osaka, 239↓ (17.9%); Fukuoka, 45↓ (9.2%); and Okinawa, 156↑ (36.3%) - The number of severe patients has been decreasing since late August; however, it is nearly the same as last week and seems to be bottoming out.
• Number of severe patients (October 7): Nationwide, 296↑ (8.7%); Tokyo, 128↑ (25.6%); Aichi, 12↓ (17.1%); Osaka, 37↓ (11.1%); Fukuoka, 6↓ (10.0%); and Okinawa, 28↑ (49.1%)
Test system
- Although the number of tests conducted varies, the recent ratio of the number of persons determined to be positive to the number of tests is 2.6%, which remains lower than that at the declaration of the state of emergency (8.8% from April 6 to 12).
• Number of tests (September 21 to 27, September 28 to October 4): Nationwide (101,820↓, 133,770↑), Tokyo (28,525↓, 38,758↑), Aichi (3,861↓, 4,265↑), Osaka (9,280↓, 10,353↑), and Okinawa (1,164↓, 2,026↑)
• Rate of positive tests (September 21 to 27, September 28 to October 4): Nationwide (2.9% [0.1% points↑ from the previous week], 2.6% [0.3% points↓]), Tokyo (3.7% [0.2% points↑], 3.2% [0.5% points↓]), Aichi (4.8% [0.1% points↓], 3.4% [1.4% points↓]), Osaka (4.2% [0.4% points↓], 3.5% [0.7 points↓]), and Okinawa (6.7% [3.0% points↑], 8.0% [1.3% points↑])
* “Trends regarding inpatients” are based on the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare’s “Surveillance regarding the Care and Number of Beds for Patients with the Novel Coronavirus Infection.” In this surveillance, values are surveyed/published at 0:00 on the date of description.
For the number of severe patients, the criteria for persons included differs from that of publication on and before August 14. ↑ and ↓ indicate an increase and decrease, respectively, from the previous week.
Evaluation of Recent Infectious Status
Infection status
- The number of new infections has been increasing in some regions from around the end of September, after 4 consecutive holidays. Various trends, such as sporadic clusters have been observed in some regions, and attention should be paid to future trends in the spread of the infection.
- Importantly, the effective reproduction number has been moving around 1 from the last week of August in Tokyo, Osaka, Hokkaido, and Okinawa, and has recently exceeded 1 on a nationwide basis. Accordingly, caution is required.
- Infections associated with dining together and workplaces have occurred as social activities have been revitalized. While movement of people is expected to increase, it is necessary to detect signs of a national spread of the infection early, and to respond accordingly.
- In addition, the proportion of middle-aged and elderly persons among the infected remains high compared to June and July. Furthermore, the proportion of persons in their 40s and 50s is increasing compared to July and August, and attention should be paid to this situation. On the other hand, while the number of severe patients has been decreasing since late August, it has recently remained at the same level as the previous week, and appears to be bottoming out.
Future actions
- Active measures should be continued in high risk places such as night clubs and restaurants with hospitality services, which have triggered the spread of the infection in Japan. At the same time, preventive measures against infection while dining together and in workplaces, where clusters are occurring, should be re-confirmed and thoroughly implemented.
- While a revitalization of movement of people and face-to-face social activities is expected (e.g., an increase in events and travelling, and the resumption of classes at universities), it is important to continue to thoroughly implement basic preventive measures against infection, including avoidance of the “3Cs” and environments where loud conversations are held, wearing of masks indoors, thorough physical distancing, and thorough ventilation.
- On the other hand, it should be noted that the conditions for the occurrence of clusters have diversified. For example, clusters have occurred at nightlife spots, not only in metropolitan areas but also in provincial cities, and in communities with specific lifestyles such as communal living. It is possible that new sets of circumstances may trigger a spread of the infection, and it is necessary to organize a system to provide appropriate information, according to the characteristics of the persons involved, and to promptly and appropriately address large-scale clusters and cluster chains, which may cause the spread of the infection.
- The number of new infections is also increasing worldwide (i.e., more than 2 million persons in one week), and the spread of the infection has been remarkable in Europe, etc. While the flow of people to and from overseas is resuming in a step-wise manner, appropriate measures such as quarantines should be considered.
- In addition, necessary measures should be taken continuously, for example, such as by limiting the number of severe patients/deaths by implementing measures against infection at hospitals/facilities for the elderly, and taking prompt actions against clusters.